Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass discusses China at Sohn San Francisco:
*HAYMAN'S BASS SAYS CHINA 7% GDP GROWTH IS A 'FARCE'
*HAYMAN'S BASS SAYS HE'S ASSUMING CHINA CREDIT CYCLE HAS BEGUN
*HAYMAN'S BASS: CHINA WILL FACE NPL CYCLE, CREDIT CONTRACTING
*HAYMAN'S BASS: ASSUMES 8.5%-10% CHINA LOANS NON-PERFORMING
*HAYMAN'S BASS SEES EMERGING ASIA BANKING CRISIS AHEAD
Confirming our previous detailed analysis on China's Banking System's Neutron Bomb.
Source: Zerohedge.com
Bass tells Fortune he expects a ‘hard landing’ for China and the global economy, but that it won’t be as bad as the 2007-09 financial crisis.
Kyle Bass, head of Dallas-based hedge-fund Hayman Capital Management, rose to prominence in 2007 for being one of the few investors to spot the U.S. financial crisis early, and to profit from it by betting against subprime mortgages. He successfully called Japan’s banking problems (and bold monetary stimulus) a few years later, and now he’s saying China will be next.
In an interview with Fortune prior to his appearance at this week’s Ira Sohn investing conference in San Francisco, Bass offered reasons why China’s impending banking crisis, though far bigger than the U.S. crisis in terms of the assets at risk, will have a smaller impact on the global economy. He also explained why the hedge fund business is less forgiving than it has ever been. Edited excerpts of the conversation follow.
Fortune: You have said the banking system in China is under-capitalized, and the country could blow through foreign reserves quickly. What does China’s banking system look like?
Kyle Bass: It’s not a mono-variable equation. Foreign reserves aren’t China’s only access to capital – they can sell bonds and they can actually print more money. But when you are thinking about their...
Read The Full Interview at Fortune: Fortune
Kyle Bass, an American hedge fund manager, is the Founder of Hayman Capital. He received extensive coverage in the financial press for profiting $590 million by short selling the sub-prime mortgage bond market, before that market crashed. In 2011, Bass initiated a huge position in Greek sovereign debt through CDSs. Media reports were that he could profit up to 650 times his investment should Greece default on its debt obligations.
October 30, 2015
September 15, 2015
Kyle Bass Bearish on Emerging Markets for at least 2 More Years. Looking to Short Currencies
Kyle Bass, the founder and manager of Hayman Capital and the man who spotted and shorted successfully the subprime bubble was interviewed today at CNBC. He shared during the “Squawk on the Street” show that he is bearish emerging markets and believes that the Chinese economical issues are just starting and that’s because the banking sector still has more bad debts to reveal and write-off. According to Kyle the loans pass due in 90 days grew by the whooping 167% just for half an year. He thinks that it will take at least 2-3 quarters until the banking sector reaches its NPL peak and thinks that this will force the government to recap its banks. But Kyle shares that it will be at least 2 more years until the emerging market slowdown is over and banking problems are fixed.
Read more: Kyle Bass Bearish on Emerging Markets for at least 2 More Years. Looking to Short Currencies
Kyle Bass, an American hedge fund manager, is the Founder of Hayman Capital. He received extensive coverage in the financial press for profiting $590 million by short selling the sub-prime mortgage bond market, before that market crashed. In 2011, Bass initiated a huge position in Greek sovereign debt through CDSs. Media reports were that he could profit up to 650 times his investment should Greece default on its debt obligations.
Read more: Kyle Bass Bearish on Emerging Markets for at least 2 More Years. Looking to Short Currencies
Kyle Bass, an American hedge fund manager, is the Founder of Hayman Capital. He received extensive coverage in the financial press for profiting $590 million by short selling the sub-prime mortgage bond market, before that market crashed. In 2011, Bass initiated a huge position in Greek sovereign debt through CDSs. Media reports were that he could profit up to 650 times his investment should Greece default on its debt obligations.
May 27, 2015
Kyle Bass Shares His Trading Strategy And Insights About Trading
Kyle Bass Shares His Trading Views
One of the actions that took centre stage in 2015 has been going short on the EUR/USD currency mostly because the ECB is implementing strongly quantitative easing (QE), and the Fed in the US starting to place a grip on its policy with a surge of interest rates lurking around the corner. The greenback has literally been trending higher while the Euro has been losing ground. Also the expectation of the ECB purchasing bonds has seen the price of such securities go higher while the yields have been falling. Kyle Bass disputes the general belief
Kyle Bass, the hedge fund manager from Texas and founder of Hayman Capital Management, gives a fantastic interview to Raoul pal. Showing now on Real Vision Television. In the interview, Kyle Bass responds to a few questions and also reveals the trading ideas that he has for 2015, and also offers investors some advice. According to Bass, he believes that those investors in Europe taking a position to trade the market with QE in mind might be making a mistake and could be caught with a surprise “The market seems to be misjudging the rates in Europe at present, it’s kind of front running Draghi” he noted. He also added that “ Even though in a slow pace, the economies of Europe at present seem to be showing signs of recovery and standing firm; and I’m of the opinion that those investors active in the European market and buying lots of bonds would be left clinging on to the bag.”
For 2015 the European rates are topping his trading ideas “taking a short position regarding bonds and paying European rates” he noted (i.e. he is making a prediction for the EU yields to hike, which it should be fairly said, since this interview was made, that is exactly what has been happening since the start of May)
“We had it all wrong”
When he was asked to talk about the last trade he had gotten wrong and the reason why, Kyle Bass referred to the trade he had made on Japanese interest rates, betting that they were going to increase, he then explained why he had thought so and what really happened.
“We all had the wrong impression” he noted. “That one we definitely had got it wrong, thankfully at least with the currency we had it correctly.” For the past 4 ½ years, he has highly been involved in Japanese trade. The trade consist of two parts – the Japanese rates and the weakness of the Yen. With the weakness of the Yen it seems to confirm itself, but the rates have just not been playing as expected…not yet.
“What I would advise”
Kyle Bass also provide the best advice he had to investors, placing accent on the necessity to have humility and insight, even when it comes to trades that are to be considered as self evident. “The best advice I could provide is that you cannot place forward your self-esteem in such a matter,” he noted. “It implies that if you have some theory you have well researched, thought of, and that are quite convinced about it, and that you are wrong, it is necessary that you admit of having been wrong.
“I’m of the conviction that by showing humility into the matter, you will make savings of a lot of cash.”
Real Vision Television was launched last year by Pal, a former GLG fund manager – the television is provided on-demand subscription and offers a wealth of information regarding investing and economics. Pal launched the TV program because he sought of having true and frank discussions with those who are considered as champions in the industry and that a traditional financial television just does not seem to provide.
http://www.octafinance.com/kyle-bass-shares-his-trading-strategy-and-insights-about-trading/65382/
Kyle Bass, an American hedge fund manager, is the Founder of Hayman Capital. He received extensive coverage in the financial press for profiting $590 million by short selling the sub-prime mortgage bond market, before that market crashed. In 2011, Bass initiated a huge position in Greek sovereign debt through CDSs. Media reports were that he could profit up to 650 times his investment should Greece default on its debt obligations.
One of the actions that took centre stage in 2015 has been going short on the EUR/USD currency mostly because the ECB is implementing strongly quantitative easing (QE), and the Fed in the US starting to place a grip on its policy with a surge of interest rates lurking around the corner. The greenback has literally been trending higher while the Euro has been losing ground. Also the expectation of the ECB purchasing bonds has seen the price of such securities go higher while the yields have been falling. Kyle Bass disputes the general belief
Kyle Bass, the hedge fund manager from Texas and founder of Hayman Capital Management, gives a fantastic interview to Raoul pal. Showing now on Real Vision Television. In the interview, Kyle Bass responds to a few questions and also reveals the trading ideas that he has for 2015, and also offers investors some advice. According to Bass, he believes that those investors in Europe taking a position to trade the market with QE in mind might be making a mistake and could be caught with a surprise “The market seems to be misjudging the rates in Europe at present, it’s kind of front running Draghi” he noted. He also added that “ Even though in a slow pace, the economies of Europe at present seem to be showing signs of recovery and standing firm; and I’m of the opinion that those investors active in the European market and buying lots of bonds would be left clinging on to the bag.”
For 2015 the European rates are topping his trading ideas “taking a short position regarding bonds and paying European rates” he noted (i.e. he is making a prediction for the EU yields to hike, which it should be fairly said, since this interview was made, that is exactly what has been happening since the start of May)
“We had it all wrong”
When he was asked to talk about the last trade he had gotten wrong and the reason why, Kyle Bass referred to the trade he had made on Japanese interest rates, betting that they were going to increase, he then explained why he had thought so and what really happened.
“We all had the wrong impression” he noted. “That one we definitely had got it wrong, thankfully at least with the currency we had it correctly.” For the past 4 ½ years, he has highly been involved in Japanese trade. The trade consist of two parts – the Japanese rates and the weakness of the Yen. With the weakness of the Yen it seems to confirm itself, but the rates have just not been playing as expected…not yet.
“What I would advise”
Kyle Bass also provide the best advice he had to investors, placing accent on the necessity to have humility and insight, even when it comes to trades that are to be considered as self evident. “The best advice I could provide is that you cannot place forward your self-esteem in such a matter,” he noted. “It implies that if you have some theory you have well researched, thought of, and that are quite convinced about it, and that you are wrong, it is necessary that you admit of having been wrong.
“I’m of the conviction that by showing humility into the matter, you will make savings of a lot of cash.”
Real Vision Television was launched last year by Pal, a former GLG fund manager – the television is provided on-demand subscription and offers a wealth of information regarding investing and economics. Pal launched the TV program because he sought of having true and frank discussions with those who are considered as champions in the industry and that a traditional financial television just does not seem to provide.
http://www.octafinance.com/kyle-bass-shares-his-trading-strategy-and-insights-about-trading/65382/
Kyle Bass, an American hedge fund manager, is the Founder of Hayman Capital. He received extensive coverage in the financial press for profiting $590 million by short selling the sub-prime mortgage bond market, before that market crashed. In 2011, Bass initiated a huge position in Greek sovereign debt through CDSs. Media reports were that he could profit up to 650 times his investment should Greece default on its debt obligations.
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